Amazon.com's Best of 2001
Five years ago, Jim Collins asked the question, "Can a good company become a great company and if so, how?" In Good to Great Collins, the author of Built to Last, concludes that it is possible, but finds there are no silver bullets. Collins and his team of researchers began their quest by sorting through a list of 1,435 companies, looking for those that made substantial improvements in their performance over time. They finally settled on 11--including Fannie Mae, Gillette, Walgreens, and Wells Fargo--and discovered common traits that challenged many of the conventional notions of corporate success. Making the transition from good to great doesn't require a high-profile CEO, the latest technology, innovative change management, or even a fine-tuned business strategy. At the heart of those rare and truly great companies was a corporate culture that rigorously found and promoted disciplined people to think and act in a disciplined manner. Peppered with dozens of stories and examples from the great and not so great, the book offers a well-reasoned road map to excellence that any organization would do well to consider. Like Built to Last, Good to Great is one of those books that managers and CEOs will be reading and rereading for years to come. --Harry C. Edwards
Book Description
The Challenge
Built to Last, the defining management study of the nineties, showed how great companies triumph over time and how long-term sustained performance can be engineered into the DNA of an enterprise from the verybeginning.
But what about the company that is not born with great DNA? How can good companies, mediocre companies, even bad companies achieve enduring greatness?
The Study
For years, this question preyed on the mind of Jim Collins. Are there companies that defy gravity and convert long-term mediocrity or worse into long-term superiority? And if so, what are the universal distinguishing characteristics that cause a company to go from good to great?
The Standards
Using tough benchmarks, Collins and his research team identified a set of elite companies that made the leap to great results and sustained those results for at least fifteen years. How great? After the leap, the good-to-great companies generated cumulative stock returns that beat the general stock market by an average of seven times in fifteen years, better than twice the results delivered by a composite index of the world's greatest companies, including Coca-Cola, Intel, General Electric, and Merck.
The Comparisons
The research team contrasted the good-to-great companies with a carefully selected set of comparison companies that failed to make the leap from good to great. What was different? Why did one set of companies become truly great performers while the other set remained only good?
Over five years, the team analyzed the histories of all twenty-eight companies in the study. After sifting through mountains of data and thousands of pages of interviews, Collins and his crew discovered the key determinants of greatness -- why some companies make the leap and others don't.
The Findings
The findings of the Good to Great study will surprise many readers and shed light on virtually every area of management strategy and practice. The findings include:
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Level 5 Leaders: The research team was shocked to discover the type of leadership required to achieve greatness.
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The Hedgehog Concept (Simplicity within the Three Circles): To go from good to great requires transcending the curse of competence.
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A Culture of Discipline: When you combine a culture of discipline with an ethic of entrepreneurship, you get the magical alchemy of great results. Technology Accelerators: Good-to-great companies think differently about the role of technology.
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The Flywheel and the Doom Loop: Those who launch radical change programs and wrenching restructurings will almost certainly fail to make the leap.
“Some of the key concepts discerned in the study,” comments Jim Collins, "fly in the face of our modern business culture and will, quite frankly, upset some people.”
Perhaps, but who can afford to ignore these findings?
Customer Reviews:
A Great Perspective.......2007-10-13
This is a business book that keeps you enthralled and reminds you of a philosophy that most of us overlook.....BE GREAT at what you do NOT GOOD. I have given this book and the book Understanding: Train of Thought to several colleagues and we have benefited by focusing on being great in all aspects of our businesses and life.
A very thought-provoking book for people trying to grow their business........2007-10-02
This was a very interesting book for me to read. I have to imagine that I am in a pretty narrow target market for this book, though the concepts may be broadly applied. I work for a small business and can see many opportunities to put this book's findings to work.
The book tells the various stories of companies that made a transition from a market participant to market leader and saw sustained success for at least 15 years. The author was able to identify a few common factors between these companies, and he and his research team present them as a model for us to follow.
I had but one small issue, which is probably not information that contributes to the rest of the research. They detail radical decisions made by upper management, sometimes completely changing the face of an established business. I figure there must be a largely disproportionate number of business that fail when they made the same or a similar move. I would have liked to see some detail behind how those successful companies came to make that decision. The decision itself was largely overlooked.
Like many "business" books, I feel that much of what was written here was largely common sense. They weren't necessarily ideas that I have had or would have come up with on my own, but as I read them they seemed mundane in analysis. It made the reading slow going, but there was a silver lining -- for instant gratification, each chapter ends with a few pages of main concepts extracted from the text.
There was some very insightful research in Good to Great. The common elements identified were relevant and practical. It would not be an easy model to follow, but if it were it would defeat its own purpose to isolate those corporate characteristics that set successful companies apart. If you have ever wondered what steps you should follow to take your company from Good to Great, this is a book you should read (even if it is just the chapter summaries).
"Good" is not "good enough"........2007-10-02
"Good" is not "good enough". When organizations and/or individuals settle for "good" as "good enough" they set themselves up to become obsolete. "Good to Great" looks at those organizations that decided never to settle for "good enough" and became "Great". How about you? Are you striving to become great at what you do, or have you settled for being good enough to get by? Does the organization that you work for have a plan to move from good to great? Are you a part of the change that will take your company to the next level or do you believe that your company is "good enough" right where it is?
I believe there is more value to be gained by pushing good organizations to become great than trying to turn mediocre organizations into good ones. The data presented in "Good to Great" shows just how much value can be gained by those willing to make the leap to Great. The book also shows you what principles of business those companies that made the leap had to adopt.
My favorite chapters are chapter two (Level 5 Leadership) and three (First Who...Then What). Level 5 Leadership address the benefits of having personal humility combined with a strong will to build something great. We have to many leaders at the top that have let their egos become more important than the organizations they run. "Good to Great" explains how the leaders of those companies that made the leap avoided the ego trap while having great ambitions for building something exceptional. Everyone who wishes to become a leader that makes a difference should read this chapter.
"First Who...Then What" does a good job of showing how great companies put "talent" at the top of the agenda. Any leader who wants to build a strong organization must put "talent" at the top of their agenda. Jim Collins address two critical issues companies need to address when it comes to recruiting and developing their talent. He shows us why it is important to get the right people on the bus and the wrong people off the bus. And then goes on to explain how great companies get the people in the right seat. How many people in your organization are in the wrong seat? How many should be taken off the bus entirely? Companies are not good at hiring the right people and then are terrible at assigning them to the right job. This chapter is a must for anyone involved in the hiring of talent.
I also recommend spending some time at jimcollins.com. I have visited and revisited this site to get more information on the concepts presented in "Good to Great". Buy the book, then go to the website and start your own journey from good to great.
Larry Kevin Adams
theactionator.com
Good To Great.......2007-09-28
Our company is taking the advice of the book to heart. We have formed our "hedgehog" group and all are excited. We want to work in an environment of greatness. The book shows us the way. We have 7 of our employees who have agreed to "donate their time" at lunch several times a month to help us identify our circles. I would recommend this book to any company or organization that truly wants to have their maximum impact in the arena in which they operate!
My Business Bible.......2007-09-24
If I have a bible for business, this is it. First who then what is the only way to go!
Book Description
With over one million novels in print, New York Times best-selling author Joel C. Rosenberg has been called "eerily prophetic" and a "modern Nostradamus" for his uncanny ability to write political thrillers that come true. In his first nonfiction book, this evangelical Christian from an Orthodox Jewish heritage takes readers on an unforgettable journey through prophecy and current events into the future of Iraq after Saddam, Russia after Communism, Israel after Arafat, and Christianity after radical Islam. You won't want to miss Joel's exclusive interviews with Israeli, Palestinian, and Russian leaders, and previously classified CIA and White House documents. Similar to the approach Joel takes in his novels, his desire is to draw readers into stories, anecdotes, and predictions in a way that builds confidence that allows Joel to share his faith in Jesus Christ and the reliability of Scripture as a guide to understanding the past and the future. Drawing on his experience in Washington, his own exclusive interviews with world leaders, and his astute political acumen, Joel makes sense of the events surrounding the Middle East. He connects information in a way that will make you understand and really care about the world's most important events and how they impact your life--from gas prices to your bank account.Epicenter is about: Change--big changes, dramatic changes, changes that will transform the world as we know it. Answers--what the changes are underway in the world's most important countries. Insight--readers will understand the trajectory of world events by being taken inside the governments of Iran, Iraq, Russia, China, and more. Accessibility--aimed for a wide audience in both the general and Christian markets. Faith--Joel shares his faith in Jesus Christ and the reliability of Scripture. Epicenter will answer questions like: Will Iraq go from bad to worse? Will Israel and her Arab neighbors find peace, or is another major Middle East war just around the corner? If the new, post-Soviet Russia is our friend, why is the Kremlin creating a new class of thermonuclear weapons and building an alliance with radical Islam?
Customer Reviews:
More than biblical prophecy!!.......2007-10-16
I listened to this book on a whim and I have to tell you that even if you're not the super religious type, you have simply got to pay attention to the many warning signs Mr Rosenberg points out. He is well informed and appears to be well connected. At least read (or listen) to this book and then form your own opinions. Call it what you want ... but a really big confrontation is coming and it's sooner than most of us ever expected. Americans have to wake up and stop foolishly thinking we're safe or untouchable any longer. If 9-11 didn't open your eyes what will it take? A nuclear attack on US soil? Don't be surprised if that happens within the next 5 years.Epicenter: Why the Current Rumblings in the Middle East Will Change Your Future
WOW!! What a book.......2007-10-14
I having been wanting to find someone who could put the current events in the Middle East into a Bibical prespective. Joel Rosenberg nailed it on the head.
A must read for anyone seeking to know the truth in end time bible prophecy.
Epicenter.......2007-10-14
Actually, my husband bought this book and wanted me to inform folks he feels it is one of the best books he's ever read (and he reads a lot!).
A must listen to book.......2007-10-11
A very thought provoking book. Everyone needs to listen to this book or read the printed copy. Our national leaders should read/listen to this book.
Dot Connecting .......2007-10-11
I watched the documentary based on this book. Great production, solid historical facts, and then the conclusion: God will save Israel without the help of the EU, the UN or USA. God will do this miraculously while we stand around and watch in awe.
These are the same folks who brought us "Left Behind", the apocolyptic series based on the book of Revelation. (Remember the "rapture" craze of the 90's?) Same folks, different crisis. Only this one is based on the book of Ezekiel.
Book Description
"The Long Tail" is a powerful new force in our economy: the rise of the niche. As the cost of reaching consumers drops dramatically, our markets are shifting from a one-size-fits-all model of mass appeal to one of unlimited variety for unique tastes. From supermarket shelves to advertising agencies, the ability to offer vast choice is changing everything, and causing us to rethink where our markets lie and how to get to them. Unlimited selection is revealing truths about what consumers want and how they want to get it, from DVDs at Netflix to songs on iTunes to advertising on Google. However, this is not just a virtue of online marketplaces; it is an example of an entirely new economic model for business, one that is just beginning to show its power. After a century of obsessing over the few products at the head of the demand curve, the new economics of distribution allow us to turn our focus to the many more products in the tail, which collectively can create a new market as big as the one we already know. The Long Tail is really about the economics of abundance. New efficiencies in distribution, manufacturing, and marketing are essentially resetting the definition of whats commercially viable across the board. If the 20th century was about hits, the 21st will be equally about niches.
Customer Reviews:
Fabulos... indispensable para entender la nueva realidad de internet.......2007-10-08
Este es un libro estructural. Ayuda a comprender la forma en que trabaja la economia a la luz de los avances de internet.
Pero tambien es un placer leerlo, lenguaje claro, ejemplos relevantes. Un lujo.
Good article, stretched out to a padded book.......2007-09-26
This book started off as an article in Wired Magazine, and it was an excellent one. But Anderson must have decided to cash in, because the book doesn't add anything that wasn't covered in the article itself. It's not a complex concept.
Read the article on the Wired website. Then go spend your money on something from a tiny niche market.
One Trick Pony.......2007-09-09
This is one of those books that has one, keen insight and then takes one hundred + pages to say the same thing over and again. The keen point is indeed interesting. It just does not a complete book make. My $.02 !!
Good book for the startup entrepreneur in the 21-century .......2007-08-20
This is an insightful book into the today's world of retail business. Cool examples of how the Internet has leveled the playing field for many small businesses and artist.
Looking at it from the point of view of the producer and not the consumer or the retailer .......2007-08-16
I am not much of a business mind but I think I get the picture here. Instead of twenty percent of the product bringing in eighty percent of the revenue ninety- eight percent of the product is going to bring in all the revenue. Having so much available, and having ready access to it means sales no longer concentrate on a relatively few items. Freedom of choice abounds, niches multiply, Alvin Toffler is happy, future shock is no longer shocking, customization is here forever, and we all can have anything we want as long as we are able to pay for it.
Good. But I think of this in another way. Does this mean that 'value' also will not be centered as we ordinarily center it in the great works, the masterpeices, the few chosen ones? Does it mean our whole conception of valuing cultural goods will change, and a few big things will be less worshipped while many more appreciated? In other words will deTocqueville be happy here because 'equality' is in the saddle and mankind has many little good things, instead of the aristocracy only having a few?
And what does that mean for creators of culture? As a writer can I now happily post my unpublished writings with the thought that perhaps a few will read them, where before none did. In other words a moneyless long- tail is still a long- tail.
I don't know. But I do sense Anderson has hit on to a new truth here which will have all kinds of implications better business people than me will have to see.
Book Description
For almost 1,500 years, the New Testament manuscripts were copied by hand––and mistakes and intentional changes abound in the competing manuscript versions. Religious and biblical scholar Bart Ehrman makes the provocative case that many of our widely held beliefs concerning the divinity of Jesus, the Trinity, and the divine origins of the Bible itself are the results of both intentional and accidental alterations by scribes.
In this compelling and fascinating book, Ehrman shows where and why changes were made in our earliest surviving manuscripts, explaining for the first time how the many variations of our cherished biblical stories came to be, and why only certain versions of the stories qualify for publication in the Bibles we read today. Ehrman frames his account with personal reflections on how his study of the Greek manuscripts made him abandon his once ultra–conservative views of the Bible.
Customer Reviews:
Enlightening.......2007-10-13
Keep your bible handy when you read this book, no matter how familiar you may be with the New Testament. Ehrman is very convincing--the NT as we know it is a far, far cry from the original, but he makes no claim to knowing that original. His point is that the copies of copies of copies have introduced thousands of changes--some very significant. And he backs his claims with scholarly and very convincing arguments. The title is misleading, however. Jesus' words, as recorded in the NT, make up only a small portion of this work. It's thrust, instead, is how ignorant, prejudiced and sometimes well-meaning scribes altered the texts, time after time. Fascinating, interesting, enlightening and very readable.
good reading.......2007-10-04
Anything worth believing is worth questioning. This book will help you realize there is a lot more to know about the bible, than you have been told. I would recommend this to people who have never looked into how the NT came to be.
For those who take the Bible seriously.......2007-10-03
Whether you are a member of a Bible study group or a skeptic, this book should be read. The author is candid about his personal spiritual path, which allows readers some insight into his possible bias, but he is also scrupulous about his scholarship. If you believe every word of the Bible--whichever translation you read--is divinely inspired, you may have no interest in reading this book. However, if the idea that modern translations alter the meaning of the King James version on which you were raised has already occurred to you, you may have begun to wonder about other changes to the Bible over the years. This book is enlightening, and for anyone willing to study the Bible seriously, reading "Misquoting Jesus" will be important to your spiritual study. Because the author respects his readers enough to explain the painstaking nature of his field of study, the book demands a willingness to wade through some difficult passages, but the effort is worth it. I highly recommend this book.
Clear and respectful exposition of a hot topic.......2007-10-02
In spite of the provocative title, "Misquoting Jesus" is very respectful of Scriptures - so much so that it willing to tell the truth about them. Bart Ehrman does his typically great job of explaining a difficult topic -- in this case, the history, operation and findings of biblical textual criticism -- to a lay audience. Ehrman's journey as a textual critic has been a long and difficult one, and it seems to have knocked him off-balance, at least for a time. Starting as a fundamentalists of the fundamentalists (to paraphrase Paul) he decided to study scripture. His first epiphany was when he asked himself, if the Bible is God's word, then why do I have to learn Greek and Hebrew to understand it? This question led to others, culminating in a nuanced and complex understanding of the Bible and its history -- as told by the ways scribes have changed the Bible itself.
Ehrman discusses the history of the Bible's transmission through the centuries-- via scribes whose literacy was sometimes comprised only by their ability to copy the shape of letters from an old copy to a new, without understanding their meaning. This was eye-opening for me, but Ehrman supports his contentions with evidence that is sometimes funny and always persuasive. Ehrman helps us to understand the world from the scribe's point of view, as they miss and repeat words, misunderstand abbreviations and (as they listen to dictation) write down homonyms that sound the same but mean vastly different things.
Ehrman gives us a glimpse at the history of biblical textual criticism. We learn how we got the Vulgate, St. Jerome's 4th-century translation of scriptures into Latin, and about 16th-century scholar Erasmus's rush to be the first to print a Greek New Testament. Erasmus's slapdash work then became a basis for the King James Bible, a translation still considered sacrosanct and untouchable by many. Through Ehrman, we learn of the great men whose work lay the foundations for modern biblical scholarship. We also learn of the tens of thousands of variant readings of Scripture that exist. It is this variation that causes consternation for those who believe the Bible to be unblemished and inerrant, and prompts delight for scholars who use the variants to piece together the original words, and to determine the theological biases of the scribes who introduced the variants into the text.
Ehrman is not on a mission to destroy the sacredness, the authority of the Church or to downplay the teaching of Jesus. He seemed constantly poised to deliver a death blow to the basic authenticity of the Bible. But mostly, he delivered examples that show the conservatism of even the most interventionist of scribes. Most of the variants, Ehrman admits, are insignificant -- misspellings and such. Interestingly, the truly significant variants are mostly tentative add-ons to the text, where a scribe changed one unpalatable word, but left the rest of the text alone. Textual critics identify these "patches," note their mismatch with the surrounding text, and propose solutions that bring us closer to the originals. Ehrman shows how variants can tell us much about the struggle for ideas that was the history of the Church. Ehrman identifies texts that were used against heretics like Marcion, against Jews, against gnostics and against women. Difficult texts, says Ehrman -- those that contradict what we would like the Scriptures to say, may well be the most accurate. For instance, in Mark 1:40-45, Jesus encounters a leper hoping to be cleansed. Most translation say that Jesus, filled with compassion, touched and healed the man. But some variants say that Jesus grew *angry* before healing him. Which is correct, and why? Ehrman argues that the variant in which Jesus becomes angry fits better into Mark's overall presentation of Jesus, and may therefore be original.
Ehrman's greatest sin is the way he vastly overstates his case. Perhaps this is due to his extremely conservative starting point (one shared by his more vituperative critics and reviewers) which cannot tolerate even the suggestion of the hand of Man in the Bible. Perhaps Ehrman's seeming overreaction (and the consequent lack to deliver) is akin to the doctor who warns that a procedure will hurt, bringing relief to the patient when he delivers only a minor sting. More darkly, perhaps Ehrman really believes that his work brings the Bible into such disrepute that he has lost faith in its divine authorship. But one need not believe that God inspired the Scriptures by literally dictating his words to scribes. One need not believe, along with the simpleminded, that Jesus had scribblers in his entourage. There are solutions to the divine authorship of the Bible that don't require the unsupported belief in its inerrancy posited by the fundamentalists nor the utter rejection of atheists. Some sort of imperfect, mysterious divine-human cooperation is an alternative, supported by mainstream scholars, which Ehrman's work certainly supports.
"Misquoting Jesus" is a terrific primer to the obscure field of textual criticism, especially as applied to the Bible. Though it provides many examples to illustrate Ehrman's points, it is not an exhaustive study of the discipline, but ably and gently leads Bible lovers to a new level of understanding of their holy book. There is no question that Ehrman simplifies his presentation. For instance, he gives us little insight into which textual criticisms are generally accepted and which are hotly debated. Some might see this book as a way for Ehrman to rush his own opinions into print. But Erhman backs up each of his contentions with logic and plausible theories. At the very least, the reader gains enough knowledge to follow the argument.
Ehrman's book helps us to be more careful about selecting biblical translations, and helps us appreciate the work of the legion of scholars who try to parse out the real meaning in its many verses. It lets us see through the gauze of false piety to understand and appreciate the differing worldviews and intentions of the Bible's writers and scribes, letting them speak for themselves. Above all, "Misquoting Jesus" helps us to see that the Bible cannot be read apart from the personalities and world-views of those who wrote it, those who copied it, those who translated it or those who read it. As such, it is a living document.
Which when you think of it, may have been its Inspirer's idea all along.
Untangling the Texts.......2007-09-24
If I had read this prior to visiting a major temporary exhibit of ancient manuscripts at the Smithsonian early in 2007, I would have appreciated more of what I was seeing. Ehrman discusses clearly for the layman the study of the many changes made in the New Testament texts by scribes, particularly in the first three centuries after Jesus, before copying became the work of professionals. While most of these variations are trivial, some significantly altered the authors' original meanings. This is of particular relevance for English speakers, since much of our appreciation of the Bible has been through the 17th century King James version, which, unfortunately, was translated from a somewhat corrupted text. Ehrman clearly discusses some of the salient differences now understood by scholars and now either adopted or footnoted in the best modern translations. In addition to inadvertent and careless changes, changes were made during the competition for Christian orthodoxy in the first few centuries. The theological disputes over the nature of Christ (divine, human, or both; one being or two beings), disputes over the role of women, conflict between Christians and Jews, and the criticisms of educated pagans all led some scribes, involved as they were, not only to conserve scripture, but to make some changes to texts that they perceived inadequately supported the interpretations that they considered correct. Since no original texts have survived, Ehrman discusses how, insofar as possible, scholars have reconstructed texts as close as possible to the originals. The original reading of some passages will probably never be known. These inspired works are thus nevertheless also very human. Close reading moreover reveals quite clearly that not all gospel writers or other New Testament authors are saying the same thing, but have different points of view and different interpretations of Jesus' life and death.
Book Description
The new paradigm for investing and building wealth in the twenty-first century. The Future for Investors reveals new strategies that take advantage of the dramatic changes and opportunities that will appear in world markets.
Jeremy Siegel, one of the world’s top investing experts, has taken a long, hard, and in-depth look at the market and the stocks that investors should acquire to build long-term wealth. His surprising finding is that the new technologies, expanding industries, and fast-growing countries that stockholders relentlessly seek in the market often lead to poor returns. In fact, growth itself can be an investment trap, luring investors into overpriced stocks and overly competitive industries.
The Future for Investors shatters conventional wisdom and provides a framework for picking stocks that will be long-term winners. While technological innovation spurs economic growth, it has not been kind to investors. Instead, companies that have marketed tried-and-true products for decades in slow-growth or even declining industries have superior returns to firms that develop “the bold and the new.” Industry sectors many regard as dinosaurs—railroads and oil companies, for example—have actually beat the market.
Professor Siegel presents these strategies within the context of the coming shift in global economic power and the demographic age wave that will sweep the United States, Europe, and Japan. Contrary to the popular belief that these economic and demographic trends doom investors to poor returns, Professor Siegel explains the True New Economy and how to take advantage of the coming surge in invention, discovery, and economic growth.
The faster the world changes, the more important it is for investors to heed the lessons of the past and find the tried-and-true companies that can help you beat the market and prosper in the years ahead.
Customer Reviews:
dividends resurface.......2007-01-27
The professor touts stocks and funds that feature dividends.Up until 1958 dividend income on stocks exceeded the interest income on long term bonds. For this reason it is difficult to assume that the good professors recommendation to go for dividend income is a prudent strategy when his data is biased by a condition that does not exist in today's market. I would prefer to use index funds that provide excellent diversification and insure that you are being compensated for the risks taken. To explore this strategy I can recommend a book titled How to Make Money in the Stock Market Buy 2500 different stocks Pay no commission. It takes off where this book ends.
Investing does not take a lot of work, in fact, the more you read of the wrong material of which there is an abundant supply, the more you will trade, and the less you will make in the market.
Active buying and selling of stocks by individuals will only run up brokerage commissions and waste your time and money. Turning your money over to a professionally managed mutual fund is even worse because of the fees you are required to pay well compensated `experts' to waste their time. This book shows you how to invest using index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.
This book can be read and understood in 45 minutes to an hour.
The author follows the strategy promoted here. His portfolio contains over 8,200 different stocks and bonds all through index mutual funds and exchange traded funds. How to Make Money in the Stock Market-Buy 2,500 Different Stocks-Pay no Commission
Classic Siegel.......2007-01-17
For those who have read "Stocks for the Long Run", this is right up that same alley in terms of style and no-frills content, after all, it is written by a researcher. However, this is a great book with lots of wisdom to digest. Siegel discusses the "growth trap", a very counterintuitive point that everyone should be aware of....it alone makes the book worth reading. If you are a serious investor/advisor it is a must read. I would caution those who would take this book and start trying to manage a portfolio of all high dividend paying stocks...Siegel's conclusions are insightful, but the right application of them is still critical. See other reviews.
Fantastic.......2007-01-09
One of the most important books on investing that I have ever read. Based in fact, backed up with decades of research, this is a must read.
Good Book, Has Some Holes.......2006-09-19
The Future for Investors has some really great points - the main one being that the compounding power of reinvested dividends should be a significant consideration in stock selection. I agree with this approach, and Siegel makes some persuasive arguments that it provides higher returns and less volitility than other approaches.
However, I agree with some of the criticisms of the book as well:
1) Siegel does not address the tax impact on dividends. His research uses 1957 as a starting point. While our current dividend tax rate is 15% at the federal level, during most of the period from 1957 the rate was higher (sometimes the same as the income rate). During these times, the reinvested amount of the dividend would have only been about 60-70% of the total. Thus, returns would have been lower. (Some people have said that this would only make a marginal difference - maybe so, but it might have changed his argument in comparing Standard Oil to IBM as well as the small advantages he pointed out in some of his stock recomendations. A 1% per annum difference over a multi-decade period amounts to serious money).
2) Siegel cites Altria as the best performing stock during this period. I won't disagree with the conclusion, but I will point out that going for high dividends and reinvesting them works well only when the company survives. What if Beth Steel had been your choice rather than Altria? You would have received lots of dividends and reinvested them, but the ultimate outcome would have been a disaster. The point is that reinvesting dividends works especially well when the reinvestment happens during a difficult time for the stock AND (most importantly) the stock MUST recover from those difficult times. This is not generally the case, but it was with Altria.
3) Siegel's idea that the developed world will sell assets (stocks, bonds, etc) to the developing world to fund the huge retirement wave is full of problems. While the strategy will work to maintain the standard of living of the baby boomers, it will also permanently ruin the future for all subsequent generations of Americans. If you sell the assets (companies) that create your wealth in order to live a comfortable retirement (read consumption), you are giving away your ability to earn in the future. This is something Warren Buffett has been warning us about for a few years now. You cannot indefinitely fund consumption with income producing assets. When you decrease your income producing assets by selling for consumption, you increase your current standard of living at the expense of your future standard of living.
Criticisms aside, this is still a thought provoking book that is well written. Ironically, even though I think there are some questions about many parts of the book, I generally agree with the ultimate types of investments that Siegel recommends - just for different reasons.
Eye opener!.......2006-08-14
I have been an Investment Counselor for over 40 years. This book makes more common sense than any book I have read on the subject. My main regret is that is wasn't around earlier. It is the key to Wealth and Security.
Book Description
Conspiracy theories about Sept. 11, 2001 continue to spread. Now, in a meticulous, scientific and groundbreaking new book, Popular Mechanics puts these rumors to rest. The magazine’s editors analyze the 20 most persistent claims underlying 9/11 conspiracy theories—and conclusively disprove each one. The result is a triumph of hard fact over conspiratorial fantasy.
Customer Reviews:
hey.......2007-09-20
so i haven't read the book, i will tell you that, but i think it's funny how John McCain helped write it. That guy needs to be off the balot and in jail for sure. Not all CT's are crazy either. They are family memebers who didn't get a proper investigation from the gov't. The Gov't doesn't care about them or the investigation and they call it a horrible attack on America. Bin Laden isn't even wanted for it. He i wanted for bombing in 198 or something on an american embassy killing maybe 200.
Anyway, read "Debunking 9/11 Debunking" wesome "truther" book
Propaganda and a waste of money. .......2007-09-20
Buy a copy of Debunking 9/11 Debunking by David Ray Griffin before buying this pack of lies. You can save your time and money and learn what Popular Mechanics says and OMITS in building their case against the truth. Hearst Publishing is still in the business of propaganda. Wake Up.
Reads like propaganda.......2007-09-14
I wish just once somebody would publish an objective book or collection of writings about this topic. The afterward is particularly insulting to the millions of concerned citizens with legitimate questions. Anyone can see that this book was written with an agenda. If this book doesn't give you ammo for you hate-spewing debunking arsenal, it might actually convince you that there are suspicious circumstances to consider.
Junk Science.......2007-08-29
This analysis doesn't even rise to the level of being wrong. You don't have to be a structural engineer to know that a steel-framed building cannot "pancake" at free-fall speed. You don't have to be a metallurgist to know that jet fuel won't leave pools of molten metal weeks after the fire is out. If you cherry-pick your "facts" you can make Stalin look like a boy scout or Mother Theresa look like the devil. This book starts with the conclusion and then tries to prove it. If you want an analysis that starts with the facts and works towards a logical conclusion, try any (or all) of David Ray Griffin's books.
Hint: don't drink fluoridated water........2007-08-24
I really wanted to fall for the "Official" fairytale. Sorry. Anyone who read this steaming terd and didn't find it insulting to their intelligence must be jacked up on fluoride. Do you know Prozac is 97% sodium fluoride? Do you know Hitler used it to sterilize and dumb down people? Do you know it is toxic waste from nuke power plants and aluminum production? You DO know your government puts it in YOUR water supply and toothpaste? Tell you what, figure out how MINOR structural damage and jet fuel pulverizes tons of concrete and EVERYTHING inside these giant skyscrapers into a fine dust before it can hit the ground, each with 47 welded and riveted massive core columns (approx 2/3 of its footprint!) Spraying sheitloads of human bone fragments atop the many adjacent buildings only to be discovered and reported years later and I will forget all about the bazillion lies, scandals and "coincidences", the complete failure of NORAD. Better stop, too much too list. Get a frikkin' clue retards, this is a cover-up hit piece AND do some homework to discover who owns Popular Mechanics Magazine. Better yet, buy the books of the great scholar David Ray Griffin instead, he easily destroys these brownshirt bootlickers using simple and sound logic.
Book Description
If you're in new product development, or simply work in management and depend on new products for your livelihood, this is definitely the must-read of the decade. You're going to love the increased productivity and the freedom to be creative of this new product development system.
Where do you suppose it originated? Toyota, wouldn't you know. If familiar with what's going on in industry today, you're already aware that the Toyota Production System is the envy of Western manufacturing. Companies like Dell Computers and Pella Windows are using it to sock it to their competition. But did you know that Toyota's new product development system is just as important to the ongoing success of Toyota? Consider this. Toyota's new product engineers are 400 percent more productive than those employed by most companies. Talk about productivity. It's enough to make top management want to dance a jig. This book explains that system and how it can be implemented.
Hold on. Before you click the order button, or surf to another site, let us make you aware of one more very important thing. The Toyota new product development system this book explains has very little if anything to do with the Toyota Production System. The former is how Toyota develops new products. The latter is how Toyota manufactures them. Both systems deliver extremely high productivity, both free people to do their best, but beyond that, there really aren't many similarities. You need to read this book to find out why. Believe us when we say, no company that depends on an ongoing flow of new and improved products can afford to ignore the revelations it contains or the potential advantages in terms of productivity and creativity that can accrue from following the method outlined in Product Development for the Lean Enterprise.
Customer Reviews:
Almost Perfect.......2006-09-01
Everything written is a bullseye with the exception of glaring ignorance regarding Six Sigma - what it is and isn't. What is written relative to Lean here should be taken verbatim as applying to Six Sigma also - there is no difference. Similarly, the written characterizations of Six Sigma should be ignored. To quote Senji Nihwa, Taiichi Ohno's lieutenant at Toyota for decades, in a good-natured ribbing, "You Americans, always trying to categorize things. Call it Lean, call it Six Sigma, it makes no difference to us...it's all the same." And so it is.
The book is extremely well written and accurate with the exception noted above. If readers can simply meld the descriptions as also being characteristic of a Six Sigma organization, and discard the mischaracterizations of Six Sigma as written, they are in for a very positive learning experience.
Thumbs up!.......2006-04-03
Thumbs up, but I'd recommend you attend his workshops over the book if the opportunity presents itself.
The book is written as a fictional account of a company's journey from process hell to an environment where engineers can devote themselves more completely to the craft they love. It is complete with protagonists and antagonists. The many men and women who have devoted large portions of their careers to wrestling with new product development process issues and trying to improve the quality and efficiency of product development processes may justifiably take offense at being cast as the antagonist, but it wouldn't be much of a story without the villains.
The book raises some very good issues and points out some very good practices that have contributed to Toyota's success. Toyota's design philosophy is optimized for lowest possible risk to model year goals. American management teams would do well to think about optimizing for low risk instead of highest efficiency and lowest development cost. For many companies the cost of developing a new product is a fairly modest portion of their overall cost structure and the price they pay for missing new product introduction dates is far greater than the gains from tailoring their internal processes for the lowest cost development.
The implementation of highly redundant development paths (called sets in the book) will be far less revolutionary than the book would have you believe. It really comes down to a willingness and ability to make the necessary investments. Readers who have studied Japanese companies will find much that is familiar. Publicly held Japanese companies are far less driven by quarterly results than are their American counter parts. Japanese companies typically have few (if any) small stockholders looking for short term gains. The largest stock holders in a Japanese company are often other Japanese companies. They tend to set long term strategic goals e.g. to dominate the world car industry in 5 years. While these businesses must make money to sustain themselves they are content with smaller earnings than their American counterparts making it possible to re-invest larger portions of their revenues back into the company. Some of that reinvestment shows up as investment in engineering work that reduces risk to new product introduction dates. But make no mistake about it, there are no miracle cures. During the initial stages of introducing a risk adverse strategy you are getting less (new features) with more (investment), but on time, likely with better quality, and you can build economically on that investment for a future stream of new products.
Efficiency can be a huge problem, but not always. In many organizations engineering efficiency is disappointingly low. The book tries to make the case that Toyota's engineers are 4X more productive than the engineers of the fictitious company in the book (approx. 80% productive compared to ITRs 20%). The measure of productivity is not explained, but it is implied that it is simply the number of hours/week that engineers spend engineering instead of (presumably) unnecessary process compliance. It is unlikely that Toyota's engineers are on average really 4X more productive than the best of American engineering teams. A comparison between Toyota's engineering and one of America's best is probably a better comparison than a fictitious engineering team. The book does not sight any objective evidence for the 4X claim. Although few companies share their productivity numbers, 65% is a widely accepted number for staff utilization. If Toyota's staff utilization really is 80% then that would put them about 1.23X more productive. In actual fact productivity is far more complex to measure and since it is so complex many observers chose a metric and then measure changes rather than focus on an absolute #. Lack of evidence aside, the book does highlight some interesting opportunities for improvement in the area of knowledge retention and reuse.
I have no doubt that there are companies whose developers are 20% productive. Lack of stability in the organization is certainly a contributor. The ineptitude and unending churn of engineering management teams is a frequent cause. Many companies have suffered at the hands of corporate management teams looking for quick fixes to the perception that their projects take too long, cost too much, and fail too often. They are often executives who have no engineering experience and no way to objectively assess the performance of their teams. They are driven by fear and uncertainty. They have often set goals that are hopelessly impossible to begin with. The result from the engineer's perspective is an unending stream of organizational change meetings to roll out the new engineering management team, introduce their dramatic new ideas, and get the teams trained. This is immediately followed by or coupled with a call to heroic self-sacrifice in an effort to meet the hopeless goal with the new structure. Sound familiar? If you we're drawn to this book it probably does.
The first thing that any student of Japanese industry learns is its strong reliance on life-time employment. While there has been some decline in longevity in recent years it remains the expectation for most Japanese employees entering the workforce. The long-term expectations and thorough understanding of the company and its markets which the most senior managers obtain during their long careers fosters more emphasis on incremental improvement rather than radical re-birth. Either strategy can work, but the highest probability of long-term success is with the incremental improvement paradigm.
Mr. Kennedy is a joy to talk to with a refreshing directness and wealth of experience. The book has a "sensational" tone, but you'd expect that in a work that was intended to get your attention and interest. The advice he offers in person is well reasoned and sound. Well worth the price of admission.
Highly Recomended for anyone interested in Product Development.......2006-03-23
For anyone interested in the next stage of Product Development -- this is a must read. The Toyota system encorporates what I felt has been missing in the product development process for so long. It takes into account the chaos that exists during development and actually encourages it instead of covering it up.
I've beginning to incorporate these concepts into our process and am excited about the results I'm seeing.
Best book available on lean development........2006-01-31
Even in the academic literature, there is no better reference. Note: do not buy the book "the minding organization" where the author refers to in the book.
Interesting Perspective.......2005-07-29
I like this book. The "story-like" format of this book is entertaining but it gets a little old for a hard core techy like me. I definitly gained some interesting insights into the Toyota development system but would have liked more focus on the facts and the theories than on the story that was used to convey the message. The ideas are very enlightening, surely valuable, and worth the read. I can over look the style to get to the ideas. It was an easy read and the "story" moved along nicely. I recommend this book but would like to find one without the fluff of the "story" vehicle.
Book Description
A renowned cultural critic untangles the twisted history and future of racism through its most volatile word.
The N Word reveals how the term "nigger" has both reflected and spread the scourge of bigotry in America over the four hundred years since it was first spoken on our shores. Asim pinpoints Thomas Jefferson as the source of our enduring image of th e In a seminal but now obscure essay, Jefferson marshaled a welter of pseudoscience to define the stereotype of a shiftless child-man with huge appetites and stunted self control. Asim reveals how nineteenth-centur y then colluded with popular culture to amplify this slander. What began as false generalizations became institutionalized in every corner of our society: the arts and sciences, sports, the law, and on the streets.
Asim's conclusion is as original as his premise. He argues that even when uttered with the opposite intent by hipsters and hip-hop icons, the slur helps keep blacks at the bottom of America's socioeconomic ladder. But Asim also proves there is a place for the word in the mouths and on the pens of those who truly understand its twisted history - from Mark Twain to Dave Chappelle to Mos Def. Only when we know its legacy can we loosen this slur'sgrip on our national psyche.
Customer Reviews:
would love to........2007-05-30
I would love to review this product if I ever receive it. It's been more than a month since it's been ordered and I'm sure I would have finished reading it in time for this review.
Masterful exposition of an explosive topic.......2007-05-15
The only bad thing to say about "The N Word" is what author Jabari Asim said himself. The subtitle, "Who Can Say It, Who Shouldn't, and Why" is a marketing invention that missed the point of the book and does injustice to its purpose.
Asim follows the N word through America history, like a trail of bread crumbs through a dark and dangerous forest. There are times when the trail is rather sparse, and other times when the pile of crumbs is wide and deep. The first crumbs are laid by 1619, with the unloading of 30 Africans into the new world. From the beginning, the word has a brutally negative meaning. Some have attempted to soften the word's harshness by claiming that it originally meant little more than an observation about the darkness of a slave's skin. But Asim makes clear by quoting from period documents that pigmentation was considered a radical (and unsavory) deviation from the European standard of lightness. Some even considered it to be literally an infection of the skin. Very quickly, the word took on connotations of inferiority, debased humanity, servility and lack of intelligence. To use the word meant to distance oneself from and to deny another's personhood. Thus it was, thus it has always been. In fact, one thing I admire about Asim's approach is that he does not give in to the now-current opinion that one should not judge past generations by this generation's morality. Asim will have none of this - to capture, sell and own human beings, to separate them from wives and family, and then to ratify that action by creating an enduring culture that belittles and demeans them on account of skin color -- has always been and will always be an act of heartless depravity.
Asim takes us on a historical tour with stops at Monticello to hear Thomas Jefferson opine (without basis) compare the alleged lust of black men for white women with the lust of orangutans for black women. From there, we travel to the battlefields of the Revolutionary War, in an army where full 20% of the soldiers were black. We tour the racist and intolerant pre-Civil War North where even ardent abolitionists were convinced of Negro inferiority. Coming from Newburyport, MA, proud to be home to abolitionist William Lloyd Garrison, this was a hard fact to acknowledge. Asim shows why "Uncle Tom's Cabin," intended as an abolitionist text, played on caricatures about blacks that were as offensive as they were inaccurate. Asim touches on the disgust of Union troops over fighting for black emancipation. We tour the Reconstruction Era South, which quickly and viciously shut the door to emancipation via lynchings, Jim Crow laws and propaganda. The propaganda took many forms, including popular music (with its depiction of "authentic" Negro dialect) and romances, which offered a sanitized and sanctified version of the glorious and pacific antebellum South in which beneficent whites and their willing slaves lived in symbiotic harmony. From here, we are treated to Northern race riots, the rise of minstrel shows and the caricatures of blacks in early films. Asim does the expected withering hatchet job on Klan-happy "The Birth of a Nation," but also eviscerates the revisionist tone of "Gone With The Wind," especially Margaret Mitchell's book, on which the film was based.
Asim shows also the quack-scientific and cultural beliefs that maintained whites' base (in both senses of the word) assumptions. Was a black man happy? Then he was born to servility. Was he angry and violent? Well, that's just his natural brutish temperament. Did he write thoughtful accounts of his life? He must have had the secret help of sympathetic whites. Asim also traces the original and development of the mythical "bad" black -- prone to criminality and sexually insatiable - from the 19th century to the present day, where it is firmly ensconced in the violence and misogyny of rap lyrics.
Asim gives us a glimpse into the science of race that used bad science to show that black brains were smaller than white brains. As Stephen Jay Gould demonstrated in "The Mis-measure of man," this was accomplished by comparing skulls from large-bodied European males to those of smaller Africans, even women, without accounting for the effect of body size on brain volume, a factor that would have erased nearly all correlations between brain size and racial "worth."
Asim brings us into the 20th century - from the Black Migration and the Harlem Renaissance through Emmett Till -- ending his history with a discussion of Lyndon Johnson, the champion of civil rights, who nonetheless held blacks in extremely low regard.
At this point, Asim falters somewhat as he tries to disentangle the complexities of modern cultural use of the N word. As the Civil Rights movement gained power and acceptability in 1950s and 1960s, whites began to self-regulate, socially punishing use of the word. But starting in the 1960s and 1970s, comics like Dick Gregory and Richard Pryor began using the word in their race-aware routines. This led the way to a more nuanced view of the term, but also opened the door to its misuse. It's one thing to listen to Pryor use the word to skewer lingering racial bias. But its use in the mouth of less talented and aware performers only served to reinforce the familiar "bad" black stereotype that both fascinated and repelled white audiences. Asim has the toughest time in this section, as he tries to detach "good" use of the N word (to attack racism) from bad uses (to reinforce stereotypes, to make cash). His heroes may be Pryor, Murphy, Chappelle, Rock and Tupac, but even he can't completely exonerate every use of the word by those he admires.
In the end, "The N Word" did its work. Asim expertly makes the case that the N word has always been associated with expressing the supposed inferiority of blacks, that its use continues to be a curse. For blacks to use it, Asim gingerly notes, is dangerous. Whether it is Chris Rock using it to brand criminally-minded blacks, or Quentin Tarantino (or Spike Lee) using it to sell movies, the word still has power to hurt and to reinforce race myths. Whether used by white racists to denigrate blacks, or by blacks to denigrate each other (and especially their women), the word has the ability to submerge entire populations into the quicksand of inferiority and self doubt. Its use always ends up confirming some of the worst and oldest facets of our culture.
In spite of the volatility of the topic, Asim's writes in cool, measure tones. Though his work is a survey that skims over the surface of his topic, Asim still conveys an enormous amount of information about history and race relations in the US. Though dispassionate in his exposition, he is passionate about the pain endured on account of the word he studies. "The N Word" is a must-read for those who think that racial bias is a thing of the past or that self-limits on language are nothing more than political correctness. Asim may be tentative about condemning those who continue to use the word, but his argument shows that there is no use of the word that will not eventually redound to the detriment of black aspirations. In a world in which talk show hosts regularly use racially-loaded language, we are well served by attending to the deeply-rooted and vicious social program that those words continue to promote.
Words matter.......2007-04-27
I saw Mr. Asim in Washington, DC during a discussion in April 2007 regarding this book, its origins and the history of the "N word". The discussion was lively, surprising and informational. Lively due to the subject matter, and surprising due to the number of black people, particularly black men, that supported the continued use of the word (in a particular context - read more below). Finally, it was informational because it shed some light - unfortunate though it is in my opinion - on why some blacks advocate for the continued use of this term in any way.
-- Now to the book. The book is thorough, well-written, and covers an astonishing period of time in just over 200 pages. Mr. Asim does not advocate the use of the word, but nor does he seek to ban it. Instead he makes a compelling argument that this word - unlike any other in the English language - has had such a significant contribution to the ongoing racism against and degradation and stereotyping of blacks in the US and elsewhere that it is appalling that the casual use of the N word has grown, rather than diminished, over the years. Asim argues that the N word's inability to disappear from the lexicon is hampered not strictly due to hip-hop artists of today, whom he doesn't let off the hook for their incessant use of the word, but by the larger society that began referring to blacks as "niggas, niggers and nagurs" etc. several centuries ago when they were sold as sub-human property. The word moved beyond slavery and continued on in popular culture (books, films and music), pseudo-science (including what is referred to as niggerology), politics (with politicians waxing about how they could "outnigger" each other) and even in war. Asim traces these uses - and the related prevailing and parallel views of blacks as sub-human - to well over 400 years ago, the more recent past and the present day. However, reading this book is not merely a history lesson. It is a chilling reminder of why words are the most fantastic weapons we have against one another.
In addition to the valuable historical context he uses to frame his argument, I think Mr. Asim offers a fresh perspective by dealing with the popular use of the term among black people. He makes a compelling point when he argues that of all of the words in the English language why use this word to supposedly show love or familiarity? As a black person are you okay with another black person saying to you "What's up my brother?" or "What's up nigger?" If you respond with both or the latter, your response to that question may change after reading Asim's book.
An important book with flaws.......2007-04-17
Nowadays, any time a hot-button issue garners a lot of chatter in the media a hot-button book can't be far behind. Enter The N-Word by Jabari Asim. Of course, the "Nigger issue" isn't exactly a new one. When I was 12 I had a badly designed button that was supposed to say "Stop using the word Nigger" but read as "Stop using Nigger the word" with a big circle-strike through the offending term. I'm a bit older than 12 now. We didn't abolish Nigger back then (in fact, its use has increased) and I'm pretty sure we're not going to abolish it now. Not without a history lesson, anyway.
Though it's tempting to write this book off as an insta-title put out to cash in on the discussion, I find that I cannot do so. Even if the author didn't think to write it until recently, it's a book that someone should have already written. What Asim tries to do is put the discussion and the word in context. What is this word? Where did it come from? Who first used it and what did they intend?
Does this stuff matter? Hell yes, it matters.
Asim does a good job of pointing out that the word Nigger never had anything but a negative connotation. That it's one of the tools white supremacists use to exert control over black people. Language is power. The highest placed black person in business, government, or education can be taken down in the eyes of others with just one label: Nigger.
That's why it's important to keep these things in context.
I do have problems with this book, but none of them have to do with the subject matter. As I said, Asim has an excellent grasp on the issue and provides a compelling argument against both the casual use of the N-Word and against banning the word all together. (More on that later.) As I read, I kept thinking that Asim could have benefited from a stronger editorial hand. It may be true that this book was put together quickly. It's not as focused as it could be. It's obvious he did a lot of research - there's a lot of history in here. But it isn't always clear how this history connects with the central point of the book. A stronger, less linear structure might have served the subject better.
Still, everyone could use a history lesson every now and then. Count me amongst the kind of people who couldn't stand history class but love a book that provides historical context surrounding something we're already interested in. And the stuff Asim offers up about the Founding Fathers, past presidents, and Charles Darwin won't make it into your typical high school history book.
In the last chapter or so -- by far the most moving and compelling part of the book -- Asim makes a forceful case for erasing the word from public discourse, but he is explicit in affirming people's rights to speak in whatever way they want in private.
The N-Word is definitely a worthy book, even with its flaws. I defy anyone to read it with an open mind and not come away feeling that the word Nigger ought to be retired. Hopefully its publication will keep the issue in front of the media in a meaningful way.
It's not really about the N word...........2007-04-16
The genius of Jabari Asim's book is not it's exposition of the word "Nigger", a subject that has been explored in contemporary detail by Randall Kennedy, Cornel West and others. Mr. Asim's book is really about the poisonous notion of Black inferiority, its pervasiveness in the American societal framework, and, finally, its expression through use of the word "Nigger". The N Word is destructive because of the vitriolic beliefs and attitudes that are associated with it. Asim teaches us this as straightforwardly as he knows how, and leaves us to make conclusions. I'm sending this book to my closest friends; it is a must for any comprehensive library on American race studies.
Product Description
Book Description The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be worse than the 1930s, beginning perhaps as early as 2009-2010, and last up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030 in detail. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered.
October 2007 Update: In 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning around the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003.
This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snap-back to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals.
This is exactly what has happened. Although the full snap-back has been delayed for the reasons described, the DJIA has now closed over 14,100 and the FTSE over 6,700.
3. The DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average a historically long-term normal of 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snap-back, DJIA actual returns have averaged a more modest 5.8%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards.
This is exactly what has happened.
Customer Reviews:
It is just an indicator!.......2007-09-12
Everyone is forgetting that the book is talking about a correlated indicator for the DJIA. There are many things that drive an economy and make things happen like the weakening dollar, monstrous deficits, the Federal Reserve, cheap credit and the housing market bubble, peak oil, etc. These are some of the things that move the DJIA, NOT just demographics. The fact that the 45-54 age group correlates to the DJIA is very interesting and CAN be used to predict what MAY happen to the DJIA in the long term. Demographics of the 45-54 age groups are a strong force pushing the markets, but not the only thing. Even the author says that some things like "the New Deal, the pill and the NASDAQ" affect the correlation with this indicator. The politicians and Wall Street are not going to lie down and let this monstrous depression happen without a fight. They my not win the War, but where the DJIA goes in the future has not been case in stone. The future highs and lows of the DJIA are still unpredictable.
The book is a high school treatise on this relationship and to the economically ignorant is a real eye opener. Most economists know about this force, but the key is what to do about it and when. The author's advice to get out of the markets by 2010 is silly at best. We are now in September of 2007 and the housing market bubble burst is probably the beginning of the down turn of the markets. Wait until 2010 to protect your assets and you will far less assets to protect. The author's advice to sell your home and rent and plow your money into bonds is simplistic at best. Investing in gold, foreign currencies, TIPS etc. to protect your assets are other stratigies that are not addressed. We are all speeding towards this economic depression, but the answers to when it will happen and what to do about protecting your assets is NOT even close to being addressed by this book. The book is $8.95 and you get what you pay for, "a wakeup call for the economically ignorant". Read the book and move onto a more advanced book for a better in depth discussion on economics and your money like "The Second Great Depression (Paperback) by Warren Brussee (Author)". I do agree that a lot of pain is ahead for the world.
Not Bad But Too Short and Too Extreme.......2007-08-22
Let me start by saying that this is a pretty good book for the price and if you don't know what is going on in the economy. The problem is that the book has very limited data to back up the predictions. If you are going to make huge predictions you had better justify it with a lot of credible data that has been referenced. As well, some of the predictions are just too extreme. However, all of these shortcomings aside, the author provides a nice short treatment on what will most likely occur; just not to the extent he has presented in my opinion. Of course, opinions are like debt in America - everyone has their own!
A much more useful book in my opinion is "Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble." It not only shows you many different ways to profit from the current bubble collapse, but it also shows a lot of detail about the economy and how to profit from America's overall credit bubble. Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble
Interesting theory but..........2007-07-09
This book is short and easy to read. The author has an interesting concept that the stock market follows the number of Americans at their peak buying age. His graphs and explanations on modifying factors make everything fit. I agree that some correction of our economy (inflation, recession, or worse) is likely in the future, but I feel other factors (energy issues, our national debt, terrorism, etc.) will come into play that he has not taken into account. I also don't agree with his investment suggestions and feel they may be reckless.
If you're concerned about possible bad times ahead, this is one book that may helpful, but I better liked the reasoning and proposals on what to do in Stephen Leeb's book The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs 200 Dollars a Barrel.
Excellent Read.......2007-05-14
Pros:
1. Brief: to the point, no fluff book(let)
2. Logical: Numbers support theory all along
3. Simple: Easy to understand
4. Value: Could save your shirt
Cons:
1. May sound too negative
2. May not consider all factors into forecasting
Pretty interesting read.......2007-05-12
This book and the argument that it lays out is pretty eye-opening. It shows you, through logical argument, how the demographics of our country will impact our coming future economic health. With these baby-boomers greying and falling from their peak spending years, our country will experience a downshift that will really challenge our concept of prosperity... A must read!
Book Description
An eminent teacher and writer explores an idea both simple and complex, both multidisciplinary and unifying--the story of symmetry.
At the heart of relativity theory, quantum mechanics, string theory, and much of modern cosmology lies one concept: symmetry.
In Why Beauty Is Truth, world-famous mathematician Ian Stewart narrates the history of the emergence of this remarkable area of study. Stewart introduces us to such characters as the Renaissance Italian genius, rogue, scholar, and gambler Girolamo Cardano, who stole the modern method of solving cubic equations and published it in the first important book on algebra, and the young revolutionary Evariste Galois, who refashioned the whole of mathematics and founded the field of group theory only to die in a pointless duel over a woman before his work was published.
Stewart also explores the strange numerology of real mathematics, in which particular numbers have unique and unpredictable properties related to symmetry. He shows how Wilhelm Killing discovered "Lie groups" with 14, 52, 78, 133, and 248 dimensions--groups whose very existence is a profound puzzle. Finally, Stewart describes the world beyond superstrings: the "octonionic" symmetries that may explain the very existence of the universe.
Customer Reviews:
A history of symmetry.......2007-08-07
This is an excellent book, although to fully understand it you need some good background in math and physics. It traces 4000 years of research in mathematics and physics, from Babylonic science (to whom we owe the sexagesimal system) to Ed Witten and superstrings. The thread of the story is symmetry, a concept that leads to group theory via the efforts to solve some the antiquity's problems (for example, the duplication of the cube) and the polynomial equations, specially the quintic. Although I am an avid reader of this kind of books I learnt quite a few things and others, although not new to me, I found were very well explained.
Among the first group, the cubic geometric solutions of Persian Omar in the 11th century, the name of Killing (the mathematician who classified simple Lie algebras in one of the most beautiful math papers, according to Stewart), the fact that Liouville rescued Galois papers from oblivion, the relation of octonions to string theory, Hamilton's carving of the fundamental relations of his quaternions in the Broome Bridge, the role of the exceptional Lie groups in physics, Witten's starting career as political journalist, etc.
Among the second: the description of gauge symmetries, the comparison between the unity of life and the unity of the fundamental forces, etc.
The reader will enjoy the well known story of how mathematicians were forced to use complex numbers in trying to apply the cubic formula and the fascinating life of Galois who so unhappily was killed in a duel at the age of 21, a duel that he had apparently exactly 50% chance of survival.
Stewart is critical of the anthropic principle, even in its weak form. According to him a sufficient condition should not be confused with a necessary condition and who knows in which exotic forms can complexity emerge. I think that we also should reflect on his suggestion that the search of a Theory of Everything is a residue of our monotheistic culture.
One of the main themes of the book is the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics (a famous article by Wigner has this title) and the ethernal dilemma: is mathematics invented or discovered? The exceptional Lie groups seem to be put there by a deity. These are fascinating subjects and no definitive answers can be given.
One little criticism: Stewart does not distinguish properly hadrons and leptons and leds the uneducated reader to believe that all particles are either made of quarks or are gluons.
Delightful book.......2007-07-19
This book made math and its history extremely readable. Its core idea was symmetry and how it acted as the driving force behind many mathematical inspirations. Ian Stewart is a master writer and he proves himself again in this book. He defines symmetry not untill p.118, where he sees symmetry as a kind of "transformation" which when applied to a mathematical object preserves its structure. Then he explains these individual aspects of symmetry in relation to Galois' groups. Near the end of the book, he brought physics into the discussion, and showed how deep abstract sense of beauty also played a crucial role in developing physical ideas. To some, it may appear bizarre, as most of the book talks about mathematicians and their 'beauties,' and suddenly physics creeps in. But in hindsight, the sense of beauty and truth is never complete without the taste of reality. Physics serves that purpose. And so he ends:
"In physics, beauty does not automatically ensure truth, but it helps.
In mathematics, beauty MUST be true - beacause anything false is ugly."
A true ending to a beautiful book.
A well-written book for the non-specialist.......2007-07-16
Some of the reviews of this book seem to feel it doesn't present enough group theory. I think they are looking for a more technical book than Stewart meant to write, and so they are downgrading the book for reasons that are not fair to the book.
I reviewed a book by Mario Livio called "The Equation that Couldn't Be Solved," and gave it 5 stars. After reading this book, I almost want to go back and lower my rating of Livio's book, but of course, I shouldn't do that just because a better book has come out since. Livio's book concentrates on a shorter timespan than this, but both feature the same things -- mathematicians' attempts to solve equations of higher and higher degrees, from quadratics to cubics to quartics, and failure to find a solution to the quintic, only to find (due to the work of Abel and Galois) that it couldn't be done; and Galois' invention of group theory to make his proof, followed by other mathematicians' revelation that group theory is just what the doctor ordered to explain symmetry.
Stewart's book goes further back in time than Livio's, and also devotes more space to the modern uses of symmetry in physics. So it puts everything in more context. And, simply put, Stewart is a captivating writer. I enjoyed Livio's book, but I could hardly put down Stewart's. This book gets a high 5-star rating from me.
But it IS a book for the non-specialist. It isn't a course in group theory, or the Galois theory of equations; it is an attempt to give a non-mathematician some idea of these subjects. It should not be rated on a set of criteria that ignore what Stewart was trying to do. The negative comments really are unjustified; but yes, I'll warn you away from this if you expect it to teach you all the group theory you'll need to do particle physics, or crystallography, or any of the subjects that depend on group theoretic concepts of symmetry these days.
Dissapointed.......2007-06-18
This book had a wonderful review in Scientific American.
I am a Chemist with a fair amount of math. The major reason I was dissapointed is basically I did not learn anything mathematical. There were some fascinating biographies of physicists and mathematicians. I am not saying I did not learn anything because I know it all already. When there was a subject introduced that it did not know, it was introduced using analogies that really stretched what was going on - like building a multistory building.
It was a good read for the personalites involved, but really not a place to learn anything.
I would suggest the classic "Chemical Applications of Group Theory" for those really wanting to learn something.
group theory.......2007-06-09
good book, but there is little original in his presentation that is not available from other recent sources. I agree with other viewers that what is needed is a good book written as well as this on the subject of group theory in relation to particle physics, nuts and bolts of applied symmetry. Nothing on the market that I know of. Any suggestions?
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