Customer Reviews:
An excellent primer for anyone interested in the subject.......2000-04-15
This book is part of an excellent 5 book series dealing with democratization. In this particular tome, different perspectives are used to explain the transition from authoritarianism to democracy. The importance of international actors, bureaucracies, entrepreneurs, the military, and economic conditions are examined to explain how transitions take place. Although some perspectives are county specific, all of them can be expanded to explain many cases around the world. All of the authors are experts in the field and the essays are highly readable.
Book Description
Using case studies that look at China, the Korean peninsula, Russia and Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and international institutions, Michael Green uncovers a more Japanese foreign policy in Japan. Though it still converges with the US on fundamental issues, it is increasingly independent. While remaining low-risk, it is more sensitive to balance-of-power issues. It is still reactive, but it is far less passive. Green argues that this emerging strategic view, what he calls 'reluctant realism,' is being shaped by a combination of changes in the international environment, insecurity about national power resources, and Japanese aspirations for a national identity that moves beyond the legacy of World War II.
Customer Reviews:
an excellent book on Japanese foreign policy.......2001-06-29
This is an excellent book on Japanese foreign policy written by someone now working for the National Security Council. It draws upon on copious research including interviews conducted by the author, as well as Japanese and English language secondary source materials. Green convincingly argues that Japanese foreign policy is particularly driven by parochial domestic considerations, and in this respect the book is quite timely in light of the political changes occurring in Japan. I learned quite a bit from reading this book -- even regarding issues on which I thought my own prior knowledge was significant.
Average customer rating:
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Randomized Algorithms for ANalysis and Control of Uncertain Systems (Communications and Control Engineering)
R. Tempo
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 1852335246 |
Book Description
The presence of uncertainty in a system description has always been a critical issue in control. Moving on from earlier stochastic and robust control paradigms, the main objective of this book is to introduce the reader to the fundamentals of probabilistic methods in the analysis and design of uncertain systems. Using so-called "randomized algorithms", this emerging area of research guarantees a reduction in the computational complexity of classical robust control algorithms and in the conservativeness of methods like
H-infinity control.
Features:
• self-contained treatment explaining randomized algorithms from their genesis in the principles of probability theory to their use for robust analysis and controller synthesis;
• comprehensive treatment of sample generation, including consideration of the difficulties involved in obtaining independent and identically distributed samples;
• applications of randomized algorithms in congestion control of high-speed communications networks and the stability of quantized sampled-data systems.
Randomized Algorithms for Analysis and Control of Uncertain Systems will be of certain interest to control theorists concerned with robust and optimal control techniques and to all control engineers dealing with system uncertainties.
The present book is a very timely contribution to the literature. I have no hesitation in asserting that it will remain a widely cited reference work for many years.
M. Vidyasagar
Average customer rating:
- My First SW book! Jude Watson is truly talented.
- A Jedi Craves not These Things...
- Uncertain, You Are
- A Let-down from Defenders of the Dead
- Obi-Wan faces an 'uncertain path'.
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The Uncertain Path (Star Wars: Jedi Apprentice, Book 6)
Jude Watson
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Similar Items:
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The Defenders of the Dead (Star Wars: Jedi Apprentice, Book 5)
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The Captive Temple (Star Wars: Jedi Apprentice, Book 7)
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The Mark of the Crown (Star Wars: Jedi Apprentice, Book 4)
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The Day of Reckoning (Star Wars: Jedi Apprentice, Book 8)
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The Hidden Past (Star Wars: Jedi Apprentice, Book 3)
ASIN: 0590519697 |
Book Description
At age 13, Obi-Wan Kenobi resolves to quit the Jedi. He finds himself on a planet where his youth promises him power - perhaps too much power. Can he overcome the peril that faces him without the help of his Master, Qui-Gon Jinn?
Customer Reviews:
My First SW book! Jude Watson is truly talented........2006-12-21
I read this book a few years ago because I had just seen Episode III in theatres and I was interested in anything Star Wars. At the time I did not realize thet this book was the sixth book in the series and as soon as I finished this book, I went back and started with number 1. Anyway, I LOVED this book. It made Obi-Wan my favorite character and even the sub-charaters were great. The relationship between Qui-Gon and Obi-Wan is truly special and this book will give you chills. I can't wait to see if/when/how Qui-Gon and Obi-Wan's relationship is mended. Even though this is a short and simple read, this book is great for any age. The emotion in this book was so well described and portrayed. I recommend this whole SERIES to anyone who has the faintest interest in Star Wars or good books in general.
-Murl
A Jedi Craves not These Things..........2005-08-25
I am liking this series. I read the first 5 books last year, and started again just this week. I am a nut when it comes to reading a series in order, so I wanted to start with these books to see how Obi-Wan and Qui-Gon interact together before venturing into the prequels and follow-up novels to the movies.
This series is set towards young readers, but I find the story on an adult level. A good and easy read for someone wanting a short story.
Uncertain, You Are.......2002-12-12
Jude Watson brings to life the choices we face everyday. It shows how Obi-Wan Kenobi had to mkae one deceision between his home and when his friends on Melida/Daan needed him most.
When his friend is murdered and all his other friends, except two who remain loyal to him, turn into his enemies. He has no where to go and his former Jedi Master Qui-Gon Jinn isn't availible to protecthim, Obi-Wan must learn to be on his own with no one to help him.
A Let-down from Defenders of the Dead.......2002-06-19
Overall, I've greatly enjoyed the Jedi Apprentice series. It's not Harry Potter, but it gets the job done. Defenders of the Dead was a highlight, with an ending that left this jaded, cynical adult gasping with shock.
Unfortunately, The Uncertain Path leads to too much boredom. Obi-Wan mopes and Qui-Gon sulks, while the Youth on Melida/Daan regress into the children that they are. A few things salvage the book. Yoda giving Qui-Gon a chewing out (sorry, "Yoda a chewing out giving Qui-Gon, hmmmm?"), a touching scene with Cerasi's father, and the lack of quick resolution to the Obi-Wan/Qui-Gon conflict. Hope remains high for book 7.
Obi-Wan faces an 'uncertain path'........2002-04-08
The bloody civil war on the planet of Melida/Daan has ended with the Young the victors. Obi-Wan has left the Jedi order to stay with his friends Cerasi, Nield, and the rest of the Young to govern the planet. But instead of having peace after so much war, the Young is starting to break up. Everyone is fighting each other, dividing friends. Taking up the chance, the Elders of Melida and Daan begin to protest. Qui-Gon himself is having many problems. After returning Tahl back to the Temple, he still feels betrayed by Obi-Wan for abandoning him. He finds it hard to forgive Obi-Wan for hurting him, can he ever be able to forgive him? Then he discovers that a series of thefts have begun in the Temple. Could it be one of the Jedi students, or someone outside the Temple? Then Qui-Gon gets the shock of his life, Obi-Wan calls for help! Will Qui-Gon go back to his former apprentice to help?
A continuation from the previous book, "The Defenders of the Dead", the story really explores the characters of Obi-Wan and Qui-Gon. Obi-Wan has left the Jedi order willingly, yet he begins to have doubts about his choice. Will he ever be one with the Force again? And will he ever get Qui-Gon back as his Master? Qui-Gon is also hurt and betrayed, finding it hard to forgive Obi-Wan. Together they must search their hearts to find out what is the correct path for them. A good ending though you'll probably be in suspense for what is going to happen next in "The Captive Temple". Jude Watson has certainly done an astounding job, the plot and story of the book is so unique and interesting and I couldn't put it down! I still enjoy reading the books as much as I did when they first started coming out in the summer of 1999.
This series explains a lot about how Qui-Gon and Obi-Wan first meet. Their beginning is far from simple and all smooth-sailings, which would be pretty monotonous if it was. Though the books are said for ages 9-12, like many other reviewers I agree that the Jedi Apprentice Series are for anybody. Extremely well-written, the emotions, thoughts, and feelings of the main characters are very well put down into words. I also like the different array of humans and aliens which are portrayed, both good and bad; young Cerasi who has seen so much pain, Nield who strongly believes in the "Young's" cause, Tahl who though is almost dying has a strong will to live, and more.
The first Jedi Apprentice book is written by Dave Wolverton while all the rest (19 more books) are written by Jude Watson and are all very highly recommended from me. The books don't really 'end' at all, the books ends in either a cliffhanger or with a little glimpse into the future. Believe me, once you start reading them, you'll want to read the next one...
Book Description
This is the fourth and final volume in a pioneering series on the Chinese military. It begins with an examination of Chinese military culture and history, with special attention to the transition from Mao Zedong's revolutionary doctrine and the conflict with Moscow to Beijing's preoccupation with Taiwanese separatism and preparations for war to thwart it. Because such a war might involve the United States, the Chinese have concentrated on measures to deter American intervention. Part II focuses on the military and decision making, first in the National Command Authority and then in the People's Liberation Army's command-and-control prioritizing system. Part III provides a detailed study of the Second Artillery, China's strategic rocket forces. Based in part on interviews, the book provides an unprecedented look at its history, operational structure, modernization, and strategy. This is followed by a historical account of the air force's long effort to modernize and its role in joint operations and air defense. The book concludes with the transformation of military strategy and shows how it is being tested in military exercises with Taiwan and the United States as “imagined enemies."
Book Description
In most countries, educated women have fewer children and have them later than uneducated women. In Uncertain Honor, Jennifer Johnson-Hanks argues that this demographic fact has social causes by offering a rich case study of contraception, abortion, and informal adoption among educated, ethnic Beti women in southern Cameroon.
Combining insights from demography and cultural anthropology, Johnson-Hanks argues that Beti women delay motherhood as part of a broader attempt to assert a modern form of honor only recently made possible by formal education, Catholicism, and economic change. Through itinerant school careers and manipulations of marriage, educated Beti women now manage their status as mothers in order to coordinate major life events in the face of social and economic uncertainty.
Carefully researched and clearly written, Uncertain Honor offers an intimate look at the lives of African women trying to reconcile motherhood with new professional roles in a context of dramatic social change.
Book Description
Ever since the publication in 2004 of the 9/11 Commission Report, the U.S. intelligence community has been in the throes of a convulsive movement for reform. In Uncertain Shield, Richard A. Posner continues the story of the reform movement begun in his earlier book, Preventing Surprise Attacks. Analyzing the latest decisions made by the Director of National Intelligence and examining in detail issues from Hurricane Katrina to the national security computer networks, he demonstrates the dangers of an overly centralized intelligence system and offers clear ideas for reform that go beyond risky organizational changes.
Customer Reviews:
Insider at Heart, Useful Critiques, Not the Whole Picture.......2006-06-15
This is the second of two books critical of the 9-11 Commission, both double-spaced, both approaching the issue of intelligence reform from a legalistic-organizational-economic point of view, right down to including arcane formulas incomprehensible to most people.
My reaction as I went through the foot-notes was that this was a bunch of old guys, many associated with the Hoover Institute or themselves failed insiders, talking to one another. There are however, sufficient side notes in the book to have been worthwhile, even though much of what the author discusses is "old hat" for those of us that have spent the last eighteen years being critical of the U.S. Intelligence Community.
The following points made it to my fly-leaf review:
1) Provides very strong critique of the WMD Commission as "critical overkill." I would add to that that the WMD Commission displayed a conflict of interest in suggesting that CIA could handle open source collection and analysis after decades of abusive irrational prejudice against open sources.
2) The author is completely off track when he says early on that Congress is not to be blamed for intelligence failures. Perhaps he is unaware of the fact that the Boren-McCurdy National Security Act of 1992 was undermined by then Secretary of Defense Cheney, but totally derailed by Senator John Warner of Virginia, who first sidelined reform to the Aspin-Brown Commission, then opposed all the recommendations, encouraged several DCI's in succession to do the same, and continues to this day to demand that the Pentagon control 85% of the NATIONAL intelligence budget because both the Pentagon and the bulk of those agencies are in VIRGINIA.
3) He provides a short discussion of how the IC elements use secrecy as a way of asserting "intellectual property" and this is useful. It would be even more useful if he were familiar with past public statement of Rodney McDaniel and with the full report of the Secrecy Commission under Senator Moynihan.
4) On Iraq and WMD he blamed CIA without knowing what he is talking about. Charlie Allen got 30+ line crossers and at the professional level (which is to say, not including George "Slam Dunk" Tenet) it was clearly understood between Ambassador Wilson's foray to Niger, the British confessing on the side that they were plagiarizing school papers, and Charlie Allen's work (see my review of James Risen, "State of War") that there were no WMD in Iraq--this was a fabrication by Dick Cheney, and perhaps understandable since he and Rumsfeld provided bio-chem to Sadaam Hussein and--as the joke goes--kept the receipts.
5) He returns to his earlier (first book) focus on the need for a domestic intelligence agency, but does not appear to grasp that 50% of the dots that prevent the next 9-11 are "bottom up" dots that have no place to go and would still not have a place to go with a DC-based domestic intelligence agency. We need fifty state intelligence centers with county-level collection networks including 119 and 114 numbers for citizen reporting to a sense-making LOCAL center that is tied in to a NATIONAL picture.
6) The chapter on "Automated Woes" is quite interesting, and like Chapter 4 in his earlier book, is one of the best parts of this one. He demonstrates a superior understanding of the many reasons why government is happy to continue with 1970's technology. He focuses on the value of Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) technology but does not appear, at least to where I could see it, to appreciate the value of open source software as a means of making a national intelligence network, with commercial levels of security, available to all 20,000 police forces, none of which can afford the brand of "secure" bullshit that the federal agencies are telling the states they need in order to receive the precious jewels of useless intelligence from "on high."
7) Although he absolves Congress of blame in intelligence failure, he provides a truly excellent discussion of the limitations of Congressional oversight, as well as the pathologies of Congressional oversight, and offers some suggestions for remediation.
8) The book concludes with a discussion of the "intelligence dilemma" to wit that success demands sharing but sharing threatens secrecy. Like most insiders, he completely misses the point of the OSINT revolution: sharing is optimized by focusing on open source intelligence that can be shared with both state and local governments, and with foreign coalition and non-governmental partners.
9) Finally, he ends with comments on the need for metrics, concluding that this is in the too hard box, but that is simply because he is unfamiliar with the path-finding work of Marty Hurwitz in the 19990's, or the work of Thomas J. Berholtz (see my review of his "Information Proficiency." The fact is that intelligence can be evaluated based on its outcomes in relation to investments of time, money, risk, and credibility.
See my lists on intelligence (short and long) for a wider range of readings more likely to result in long-term intelligence reform. Judge Posner certainly merits our respect and attention, but his views are rather narrowly formed.
Original Thinking.......2006-05-30
This book has a good deal to recommend it. Perhaps its highest virtue is that its author Judge Richard A. Posner is not an intelligence professional or even a groupie of the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC). As a result, Posner is unusually objective in his analysis of the IC and the two reports which have precipitated its so called reformation. Another commendable virtue of the book is that Posner writes in clear jargon free prose and expresses himself with great accuracy.
He does a great service by providing the reader with a careful analysis of both the 9/11 Commission Report and the WMD Report which were the catalysts for the congressionally mandated reforms in the IC, particularly the creation of the Directorate of National Intelligence (DNI). Posner applies impressive logic to the task and reveals a host of short comings and failings in both reports. The center piece of this book, however, is his reiteration of an argument he made in a previous book, "Remaking Domestic Intelligence" in which he makes a strong case for a domestic intelligence agency independent of the FBI. This indeed is a book clear of the vague musings and fuzzy recommendations so often found in books on reforming the IC.
Yet this reviewer must fault one of Posner's premises on which his argument is built, namely that, "intelligence is inherently and incurably mistake prone" (P. 208) and therefore the criticisms of IC found in both the (/11 and WMD reports are unfair and inappropriate. No one will dispute that producing accurate intelligence is a dicey business. It is nonetheless a leap of logic to extrapolate from this that the IC, and especially the CIA, is blameless in regards to the 9/11 catastrophe and the Iraqi WMD fiasco. In point of fact both these two events are simply the latest (that we know of) in a long series of badly executed intelligence projects. Sure intelligence by definition can only produce approximate truth, but that does not relieve the IC or CIA from the responsibility of doing a better job than they have over the last twenty years. It is often claimed that the while the failures of U.S. intelligence are widely known its successes must remain secret. To an extent this is true, but it should also be noted that the great bulk of its failures are also buried in secrecy and unknown to the public.
Vital for a critical understanding of the Intelligence Community's Reformation.......2006-05-23
Why can't there be more books like this one? This slim volume contains more insight than many books three times its size. "Uncertain Shield" is a follow-up to Posner's previous book "Surprise Attacks", and while either book can stand on its own, I recommend reading both. Surprise Attacks addressed the deficiencies in the 9/11 Commission's recommendation, and the resulting flaws in the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act. In "Uncertain Shield," Posner extends his critique to include the recommendations of the WMD Commission.
One of Posner's major arguments in "Uncertain Shield" is that that WMD Commission's recommendations actually contradicted its own observations. The intelligence community's inability to accurately determine Saddam Hussein's WMD capabilities was a problem of "groupthink" - always a potential problem in any intelligence system, but one exacerbated with greater centralization. Oddly, the WMD Commission, nevertheless, recommended even greater centralization.
Posner argues that the approach for both the 9/11 and the WMD Commission was to assumed that intelligence was broken without determining the limitations inherit in the business of intelligence. He criticizes both commissions for rushing to recommend reorganization of the intelligence community without examining the unintended consequences of that reorganization. Drawing on established organizational theory, Posner shows us some of those consequences. For example, both commissions failed to distinguish coordination from command, advocating a top heavy organization, far removed from the subtle indicators that intelligence depends on for accurate prediction.
Posner is critical of the WMD Commission for making recommendations base only on shallow analysis. For example, the commission recommended that advancement within the intelligence community should be based on merit. While in theory it's difficult to argue with that recommendation, in practice determining merit in the context of an intelligence organization (and government in general) is difficult. As both history and theory have shown, without having a clear measurement for merit, this can lead to waste and inefficiency. Should we reward the quantity of intelligence sources, or the quality of intelligence sources? Quantity is objective and easily measured, but with regards to intelligence, quantity and quality often have an inverse relationship. On the other hand, if we're going to insist on rewarding quality, then we need to know how to measure it objectively, otherwise, we risk replacing effectiveness with intra-office politicking. These are the types of issues the WMD Commission simply glossed over.
Posner argues in favor of the creation of a domestic intelligence service- an American MI-5. He addresses both the security needs for, and the civil liberty concerns about such an organization. Applying organizational theory, Posner, shows that creation of an intelligence unit inside the FBI will fail, because of the incompatibility of a law enforcement culture and intelligence culture in the same organization. While the FBI measures success on the number of arrests leading to successful prosecution, intelligence work is less specific towards that goal, looking at trends and recruiting sources. Addressing the concerns of civil libertarians, Posner dispels the myth that the requirement of a "criminal hook" will somehow protect us from government abuses. History shows no evidence of this assertion. On the contrary, more likely, it will lead to the greater government coercion. An intelligence organization, with no law enforcement capability, would seek cooperation and be less inclined to alienate Muslim members of the population. As Posner points out, it was a historical abuse of coercive law enforcement in the name of security that led the Allies to insist that the German government after World War II divide its domestic intelligence (information) functions from its law enforcement (coercive) functions. Previously, these two functions had been united in the SS.
Posner's does an excellent job throughout the book of pointing out the distorted incentives found in dysfunctional organization within intelligence. For example, no one in security was ever disciplined for not giving a risky candidate a security clearance. A candidate may have all the language and culture knowledge in the world, and he may be an indispensable asset to department seeking his employment, but security won't take the risk. Why should they? They will not benefit from his skills, and they will be blamed if he turns out to be a security breach. Posner suggests that it would be better to let security make an official recommendation, and let the department managers be responsible for determining the level of risk they are willing to accept - measuring the proper balance between mission accomplishment and security concerns. The managers would also be in a better the position to restrict the candidate from certain types of access within their department.
I highly recommend this book for anyone interested in understanding the current upheavals in the intelligence community, and who wants to understand real issues apart from the partisan rhetoric. I would also recommend this book for anyone looking for good case studies in organizational theory. This book shows how theory can be applied in a useful, coherent, and common sense argument.
Amazon.com
Is the Temperature Rising? Well, yes, according to S. George Philander, a geoscientist at Princeton University whose introductory course in climatology provided the seed of this book. Written in a clear, literate style aimed at the layperson, Philander is a welcome antidote to the all-too-often sensational claims made by one side or the other in the global-warming debate. This is not to say that his book is comforting: Philander has little doubt that current conditions on earth--the proliferation of CFCs in the atmosphere, the forest fires and factory emissions that contribute to the destruction of the ozone and to the blanket of gases that trap heat--are having damaging effects. In the long run, he writes, the earth can take care of itself, adapting to the changes in its atmosphere; over the short term, however, the picture is grimmer, for no one can predict with any certainty just how these atmospheric changes will play out. And herein lies the real interest in Is the Temperature Rising? Rather than rant about imminent doom or deny it, Philander explains just why it is so difficult to forecast the consequences of global warming. Clouds, for example, are a huge uncertainty, since they can either heat or cool the earth depending on their form.
But just because you can't predict exactly what will happen is no reason not to do something about the problem, Philander argues. He opposes those who suggest we wait for more accurate scientific information about global warming on the grounds that the science of climatology will never be exact; put off making decisions for too long, he warns, and it could be too late. Is the Temperature Rising? is both a solid explanation of the factors that contribute to global warning and a no-nonsense exhortation to act while there is still time.
Book Description
Most of us have heard the dire predictions about global warming. Some experts insist that warming has already started, and they warn of such impending disasters as the sea level rising to flood coastal cities. Others, however, have issued loud counterclaims, assuring us that global warming is a myth based on misleading data. How can we tell who is right, and how we should respond? And why is there no scientific consensus on a matter of such vital importance? George Philander addresses these questions in this book, as he guides the nonscientific reader through new ideas about the remarkable and intricate factors that determine the world's climate.
In simple, nontechnical language, Philander describes how the interplay between familiar yet endlessly fascinating phenomena--winds and clouds, light and air, land and sea--maintains climates that permit a glorious diversity of fauna and flora to flourish on Earth. That interplay also creates such potent weather disrupters as El Niño and La Niña, translates modest fluctuations in sunlight into global climate changes as dramatic as the Ice Age, and determines the Earth's response to the gases we are discharging into the atmosphere, such as those that led to the ozone hole over Antarctica and those that are likely to cause global warming. In his discussion of these matters, Philander emphasizes that our planet is so complex that the scientific results will always have uncertainties. To continue to defer action on environmental problems, on the grounds that more accurate scientific results will soon be available, could lead to a crisis. To make wise decisions, it will help if the public is familiar with the geosciences, which explore the processes that make ours a habitable planet.
The book is an excellent introduction to the basics of the Earth's climate and weather, and will be an important contribution to the debate about climate change and the relationship between scientific knowledge and public affairs.
Customer Reviews:
good overview but short on any deep details of global warming debate.......2006-12-25
I enjoyed this book, being a good introduction to the science of climate, over seasons and over eons. He leads the reader to plausible conclusions by offering examples of how things have been, on the Earth and its neighboring planets, and the direction they are likely to head. I think all reasonable people today agree that increased greenhouse gases will cause SOME warming in the future. Question is how much? and how quickly? And that is where the science needs to be more exact, and where more insight is needed. This book does not do that adequately. It remains a good starting point, however, for those who can seek further details elsewhere, later.
A "risky business".......2004-04-24
If you retain any doubts about whether the atmosphere around us is warming, this book will dispel them. George Philander has produced the most complete study yet of climate mechanics and trends. His theme is the complexity of the global weather systems. With three decades of experience teaching the subject, he understands these intricate systems. He knows each part must be dealt with individually. Although derived from a series of lectures, he rises above a purely pedantic approach in presenting the issues. He's fully aware that human-induced factors in climate change can be modified only by those same humans. Although containing a wealth of detail, the book is directed at the general reader. It's an indispensable starting point in learning about climate and global warming.
In coping with the many interacting elements that must be addressed in assessing global warming, he begins at the fundamental level. Once any form of atmosphere is in place, what does light do in generating change? No atmosphere merely sits in place - light drives chemical and temperature changes. What changes take place, and how severe, great or minimal, can they be? This is the "uncertain science" Philander uses to subtitle the book. Because interactions of light, water vapour and various molecules react differently, he cautions the reader and his fellow scientists not to arrive at conclusions without making fully comprehensive assessments. It is too easy, he cautions, to draw conclusions through focussing on one or a few players in the climate drama. Ignored or dismissed factors are likely to hold surprises. The biggest surprise, of course, is a scenario that proves false.
With global warming universally accepted, with only the pace and impact in dispute, Philander's book is a welcome summary of the science. His style is neither alarmist nor overly detached from the issues. The balance keeps the book readable. He even banishes most of the mathematical explanations to Appendices at the back of the book. The text is enhanced by highly effective graphics. The theme of uncertainty is introduced early in the book with an image of a skier's wallet skidding down a slope. "Moguls" of heaped snow make the wallet's track unpredictable - a point referred to frequently in the narrative. He images the way
mountains affect rain patterns, how globe-girdling oceanic currents move and what happens in the deep seas as fresh, salt, cold and warm waters interact. Anyone still thinking the oceans are simply beds of salty water should look here.
Although Philander's style is understated, he leaves no doubt as to the seriousness of the problem. The atmosphere is warming. Whether humanity initiated the current cycle is irrelevant. We are aggravating it and only we can reduce our impact. We are unlikely to curb the El Nino cycles, but we can learn to better cope with them. We can also reduce the likelihood of their growing more intense. Philander cites the case of fluorocarbons and the Antarctic Ozone Hole. An accord led to reduction in those gases, new accords can reduce or eliminate production of others clogging the atmosphere. Global warming, he says, is a "risky business". It's up to us to reduce the risk. Read this book and find out how. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]
Not an easy read but worthwhile.......2004-02-25
In his book "Is The Temperature Rising?: The Uncertain Science of Global Warming", S. George Philander provides an excellent overview of the various geological, climatic, atmospheric and oceanic forces that bear on the debate over global warming. In contrast to other groups who have taken sides on this issue, Philander's book reflects a basically moderate view which seeks to bridge the chasm between the overly-simplistic or just plain hysterical rhetoric that too often characterizes the debate over global warming.
The primary focus of the book is a tour of the science that bears on the ultimate climatic question: is the temperature rising? Philander dives into a detailed review the energy inputs and forces that shape the earth's temperature balance and discusses what is happening now that will affect those forces, in particular, the impact of man-made greenhouse gasses. No doubt this survey is a necessary foundation for understanding the problem, however it comprises the bulk of the book and required some dedication on my part to get through it. In other words, it's not a quick and dirty read and you may find yourself, like me, putting it down frequently.
This review gives the reader the understanding of the many factors that will impact the outcome of current trends in fossil fuel gas buildup - factors which are not unidirectional. For instance, models of global warming generally predict that increased temperature will lead to more water moisture in the air, which in turn acts to reflect sunlight and helps cool the atmosphere. What is not fully understood is how the opposing forces interact and which trend will prevail. Unfortunately, the complexity of the issue - as exemplified by this interaction - greatly clouds the debate, leaving ample room for sophistical arguments from those who both accept and reject the global warming hypothesis.
According to Philander (and essentially everybody else), what is indisputable is that the concentration of so-called greenhouse gasses is rising dramatically, and that alone should be enough to engender caution and attention to this issue. The author lands with those who believe that the earth will continue to warm but implicitly acknowledges that he doesn't know the answer either. Nor can we be sure, but the debate is not likely to go away, so those interested in participating in it could do worse than to read this book. Other reviewers appear to have been disappointed that the book chose to concentrate so heavily on the science behind the global warming debate, but to them my reply is that the science is the crux of that debate - if you're interested in the topic don't let them dissuade you from reading Philander's book. It could be a bit more readable - but it couldn't really be any more on-topic.
He indeed has built a house, but on the foundation of facts.......2003-06-22
'Is the temperature rising?' is an amazing book. It's perfect for anyone who really wants to get the facts straight on the issue. It states that to make a proper judgement, one must be familiar with the way the earth works. The way light interacts with molecules, heat, albedo, the weather, air, carbon dioxide, etc. Without a basic knowledge of the way the planet functions, it's hard to undestand what Global warming really does. Philander explains all of this in great detail so it's not exactly light reading but well worth the time. Best of all, it's writen from an unbiased point of view.
an excellent mistitled book.......2000-11-21
This book should really be called _How the Temperature Rises: the Fundamentals of Global Warming_.
In concise readable prose Philander outlines all the physics, chemistry, biology and geology that you will need to understand to truly follow the debate about global warming. This is no mean feat. We are talking about GLOBAL warming here, i.e. the science of how everything works. He methodically proceeds component by component through the environment and explains basic scientific principles that govern, among other things, how the wind works, how ocean currents move, how heat is transported through the atmosphere and in the oceans, how the atmosphere is heated from below and why, and how mathematical models represent climate.
He is determined to make his readers into informed participants in a discussion that he makes clear that he believes is very important. He does not hector, but he does take an unambiguous position: we should do something about this. It is a pleasure to read a book that reaches a passionate conclusion through reasoning. I withhold one star because I thought that the summary chapter that actually does address global warming directly could have been more detailed.
Book Description
Albert Einstein and Max Born were great friends. Their letters span 40 years and two world wars. In them they argue about quantum theory, agree about Beethoven's heavenly violin and piano duets (that they played together when they met) and chat about their families. Equally important, the men commiserate over the tragic plight of European Jewry and discuss what part they should play in the tumultuous politics of the time.Fascinating historically, The Born-Einstein Letters is also highly topical: scientists continue to struggle with quantum physics, their role in wartime and the public's misunderstanding. First published by Macmillan in 1971, this book is re-issued, with a substantial new preface by leading US physicists Kip Thorne and Diana Buchwald, as part of 2005's Relativity Centenary celebrations.
Customer Reviews:
A peculiar glimpse into the relationship of two physicists.......2007-08-06
Take a great mathematician, add to it the talent of a philosopher, the mindfulness of a Buddhist monk and the intuition of a gifted doctor and you get a world's greatest physicist. This book is a peculiar glimpse into the relationship of two accomplished physicists. The letters touch up on a number of scientific, humanitarian, and political issues. Enlightening account of two intelligent people dealing with the inevitable intellectual and personal differences within the context of their freindship. A fascinating account of Einstein's state of mind during his last days and his general attitude towards dying at the end of the book. The translations are done in questionable English but it only adds to the charms. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED!
Revealing the Human Side of Two Brilliant Scientists!!.......2005-07-15
+++++
The highlight of this book by Nobel Prize-winning physicist Max Born (1882 to 1970) is the letters he and Nobel Prize-winning physicist Albert Einstein (1879 to 1955) exchanged between the years 1916 and 1955. These letters (that were never meant to be published) show the human side of these brilliant physicists.
This book has an overall introduction broken up into seven sections:
(1) Note on this new edition by Gustav Born (one of Max Born's sons).
(2) Acknowledgements for this new edition again by Gustav.
(3) A Modern Preface to this new edition by historian Diana Buchwald and physicist Kip Thorne.
(4) Forward to the original edition by Nobel Prize-winning philosopher Lord Bertrand Russell.
(5) Introduction to the original edition by Nobel Prize-winning physicist Werner Heisenberg.
(6) Acknowledgements to the original edition by Max Born.
(7) A kind of Preamble to the letters again by Max.
Then we come to:
(8) "The Born-Einstein Letters"
(9) "Index"
I recommend reading the seven sections of the overall introduction first before reading the actual letters themselves.
Special mention should be given to the Modern Preface (written in Sept. 2004) to this new edition. This section is very thorough (it has more than 60 footnotes) explaining everything you need to know about the letters themselves.
The "Born-Einstein Letters" themselves are numbered for easy reference. The first letter is dated (Feb. 27, 1916) while the last is dated (Jan. 29, 1955). There are commentaries, explanations, and autobiographical remarks by Born accompanying almost every letter. As the modern preface says:
"These commentaries are striking in their candor, in their admiration for Einstein and the apparent need for Born to comprehend and explain some of the major disagreements with Einstein over the years."
This collection of 120 translated letters itself can be broken down as follows:
(i) 39 letters from Einstein to Born
(ii) 7 from Einstein to (Born and his wife Hedwig nicknamed "Hedi")
(iii) 17 letters between Einstein and Hedi
(iv) 48 from Born to Einstein
(v) 3 from (Born and Hedi) to Einstein
(vi) 1 from Born to Einstein's second wife
(vii) 1 in each direction between Einstein and Born and Max's friend, the physicist James Franck
(viii) 3 from Wolfgang Pauli, a theoretical physicist, to Born
As the modern preface says:
"The letters themselves constitute one of the most vivid and valuable testimonies in the development of modern science. They also tell us much about the personal hardships that Einstein and Born overcame during two world wars, the vagaries of academic life, the daily grind of administrative work, and the steadfastness and frailty of human relationships. Throughout runs a scientific dialogue that was central to their lives...
[Most of these letters] attest to the close, lively, and at times turbulent relationship among [Born, Hedi, and Einstein]. Esteem, affection, and occasional criticism from the Borns is countered by warmth from Einstein with occasional flirtatiousness toward Hedi and at times defensive, even wounded humor...
Born included [the 3 letters from Pauli (as indicated in viii above)] as they illuminate a misunderstanding between himself and Einstein about quantum mechanics...
The frequency, topics, and tone of the letters...reflect the initial closeness, and cooling and final rapprochement between Einstein and Born. Between 1916 and 1920 both wrote to each other eagerly. After Einstein's rise to national and international fame, they exchanged less than four letters per year on average, until the final year and a half of Einstein's life, when the early warmth returned and their correspondence regained its original intensity."
The themes in these letters and Born's commentaries impart an "impressive tapestry." Some include those of a personal nature such as Einstein's philosophy of life; his relaxed attitude towards mistakes in his scientific work; and Born's disappointment over the poor early recognition of his contributions to quantum theory. Larger social and political themes include Communism; Zionism; Born's and Einstein's extensive efforts to help Jewish scientists in the wake of Hitler's rise to power; the Holocaust; the atomic bomb; Hiroshima and Nagasaki; and the evolution of Germany after World War Two.
In these letters we meet a large number of distinguished scientists of the era. We also see the extensive range of scientific issues that occupied Born and Einstein during their careers.
A highlight of this book (for me, at least) is the historical 1927 black and white photo of almost 30 distinguished scientists (all men except one woman) of that time. Born and Einstein are highlighted in this photo.
Don't worry! You don't have to know any science to read this book. You can simply skip those science parts you don't understand. However, knowing some science or having access to a good science dictionary would be beneficial.
Finally, there were two problems I found with this book:
First, there is no table of contents. I thought this odd since the book is so well organized. Instead there is only a title page that only lists (without giving page numbers) 5 of the 9 sections indicated above. For a book of such important historical and scientific historical magnitude, I thought this was a major oversight.
Secondly, the index is only a name index. There is no subject index. Why? There is an impressive array of topics covered in these historical letters (some of which I touched on above). Thus, I think a subject index should have been mandatory.
In conclusion, this is a unique book that includes the actual letters between Albert Einstein and Max Born. Be sure to read this book and see why Born said, "With [Einstein's] death, we, my wife and I, lost our dearest friend."
(first published in English 1971; this edition published 2005; overall introduction of 7 sections; 120 letters with commentaries; overall introduction and letters comprise 270 pages; name index)
+++++
Average customer rating:
- Insightful and a pleasure to read
- An excellent book
- Excellent. A must read for academics.
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Rational Choice in an Uncertain World
Robyn M. Dawes
Manufacturer: Harcourt
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ASIN: 0155752154 |
Customer Reviews:
Insightful and a pleasure to read.......1999-12-08
The book is well structured, with each chapter demonstrating one aspect of how irrationality keeps creeping up in our day to day decision making. The style is clear an pleasant.
Highly recommanded.
An excellent book.......1998-07-22
Dawes is the master at identifying what works from what only looks like it works. An important book that will stand the test of time.
Excellent. A must read for academics........1998-03-09
In a simple style, rich with examples, Dawes explains many aspects of how simple principles of rationality can help resolve otherwise complex choice situations.
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